Modeling Scenarios

Scenario Models have three major purposes:
 Automation - Modeling speeds analysis and ensures more consistent, higher quality results. This means more scenarios can be developed and evaluated so planners and decision makers can make better choices.
 Increasing understanding - Planning problems are too complex to fit inside a person's head. Scenario models let people focus on smaller parts of the overall problem without losing sight of the big picture. Being able to run more scenarios makes calibrations easier. Planners can identify emergent opportunities and risks created by interactions between different elements of the community. The models help non-planners understand the tradeoffs and complexities of planning by giving them a richer view of planning problems.
 Improving communication - Without good communication, planning is impossible. With a scenario model, planners use realistic examples to capture a clear understanding of the priorities, and acceptable tradeoffs of the public, stakeholders, and elected officials. Transparent models, and clearly demonstrated tradeoffs help develop and maintain the political support necessary to get plans adopted and implemented.

[LEFT} To get the maximum value from scenarios, people must compare them against each other. This example from the Greater Vancouver Transportation Authority (GVTA or Translink) shows how morning rush hour congestion would change depending on two infrastructure investment scenarios.